Therm-a-rest is the best compromise between cost, pack size, comfort and warmth in my book. The cheaper ones don't really cut it (with the exception of the outwell which is close). Therm-a-rest also do a large size mat which is a good bit bigger than the competition and you are less likely to roll off the thing. I use the Therm-a-rest Trail Lite 4.
If money is no object have a look at Exped Down Mats they are really good but but they don't pack up quite as small (but are close).



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wack it in a compression sack and strap it on ya bike i know it might be bulky but theres no weight in it and its the warmest thing i use its great
also i use a stove attachment as well so to convert into a heater cost about a fiver from towsure above all my concerns with cold weather camping keeping warm is top of the list i would rather take the above and cut down on other things and one last thing is my camp bed its 2.7kg comes in a bag uses 3 legs and keeps you off the cold floor and comfy as hell.
